With the recession related job loss becoming a reality in India, people are looking at alternative career options. There are a few who are setting up their own small businesses, whilst a large number of newly unemployed or under-employed are trying to look for 'secure' jobs, and engaging themselves in discussions about the 'turn around' - when it will happen, and what will be the new lucrative avenues for employment.
Like most sectors, the nascent startup ecosystem in India is also suffering, although the relative lack of media focus on the startup scene meant that most of us are hardly aware of the churn.
In this context, the area of 'social entrepreneurship' assumes importance for the following reasons:
1.The potential for success and scaling up is enormous in India because of the untapped needs of our 1 billion plus population.
2.Social entrepreneurship is not easy, but the startup capital required is not high, and there are practically no entry barriers.Any one can do it, full time or part time.Crowd sourcing may be difficult for a traditional startup company, but social entrepreneurship demands and thrives on crowd sourcing.
3.The welcome changes in the governance approach of both Union and State governments in India has made public-private partnerships more feasible than earlier.
4.The social entrepreneurship model has the potential to create thousands of jobs, and target all sections of the society with its goods and services.One can make a real difference to one's geographical community, and that feeling of satisfaction is not some thing money can buy.
5.The branding process in this model is relatively straightforward (the whole world loves a winner fighting against seemingly tough odds), and this branding can then be leveraged for public and personal good.
Ok, enough of a plug for this 'model'. Now, what exactly is social entrepreneurship?
Is it the same as setting up an NGO, generate funds, and implement some developmental programs? Yes, and No.
Yes, because one can use the NGO route to implement this model.There are many successful NGOs that have started small, involved the community, and managed to better the lives of a few people. But in India at least, the NGO sector has had a lot of bad press, and most of the criticisms are valid.
A social entrepreneur, as per Wikipedia is some one who recognizes a social problem, and uses entrepreneural principles to organize, create, and manage social change.
Such an enterprise need not be non-profit, it can blend a revenue-generating business with a social-value generating structure or component. The poster boy for this classical definition of a social enterprise is Mohammed Younus of the Grameen Bank fame.
Okay, so there are already dozens of micro-financing NGOs and for-profit self-help organizations, some promoted and run by the Govt in several states of India. What's new here?
Even though the micro-finance sector is far from getting saturated, I agree that getting into that sector is no longer as cut and dry as it used to be. So, lets take a look at some of the other sectors that look promising.But please note that I would like to focus on for-profit models in my discussion/s here.
1.Farming - Yes, farming. There is a huge potential in this sector for new businesses, especially in the area of sustainable farming.
Sample idea: A group of friends get together, pool some money and buy/lease some land.They then implement sustainable farming methods in that piece of land.They don't stop there. They canvass the benefits of the methods in nearby villages, and sign up more farmers on their scheme.The scheme is - study the market, produce marketable stuff, and use good marketing techniques to create a brand and charge a premium. How does 'Sangareddi Papaya' strike you?
There could be many variants of the scheme depending on what can be grown locally, what products could be delivered to the super market chains and be exported, what will be the margins, and how does one make it sustainable and scalable in the long run. One needs to use systems thinking and a lot of common sense.
Another variant to the farming idea is that of 'micro-farming'.If you go by the classic definition of micro-farming, you would need between two to five acres per farm plot to do any thing feasible. The spin on this concept is to take it to urban areas, and do a mini-micro farming :) There are people in Canada selling this as an idea with a methodology, training and all the jazz. Read this.
Now, imagine a group of friends (here on wards to be called simply 'a group') that goes to villages and spends a month or two recruiting subject matter experts in gardening and micro-farming.The group also visits agricultural universities and research institutes to gather useful data, and bring some theoretical experts on board.And creates a pilot site in an urban area - could be some one's terrace or backyard. (Side note: Have you heard of Mr.Shripad Dhabolkar? If not, read this inspiring account from Arun Shourie .)
With the pilot site ready, our group now starts canvassing in the entire city to sign up people who want to engage in mini-micro farming.People with front yards or back yards, but no time or energy to grow any thing.Apartment complexes with unused terraces, Govt offices with wasted open spaces, MNCs or desi companies who want to earn some carbon credits or offer a unique CSR opportunity to its employees, educational institutions with available empty space etc etc;
On the other hand, there will be people who want to do gardening/farming but don't have the space; youngsters who want to earn some money, home makers who have a few extra hours to spare and don't mind earning enough for their vegetables, fruits and flowers, retired citizens who wish to keep fit etc etc.
Our group brings them all together - it is possible to create a 100-acre operation in a small town and a 500-acre operation in a city within a year or two.(I admit I am yet to do the math.But then, I am in search of a group or groups my self !) And I strongly believe that with the benefit of our group's subject matter experts, adoption of proven best practices, and crowd sense based business decisions, the operations will turn in a neat profit for every one involved in the enterprise. Now that our group has succeeded in one town, they can brand the whole concept, and help other groups in other towns and cities through a franchisee model or a training model, to generate more revenues. Heck, the original SMEs could even open a 12-hr helpline to answer queries on line or on phone :)
So much to say on just the topic of farming, and I think I have just begun to scratch the surface here.And there are many other sectors to cover !
I will try to post my thoughts and crazy ideas on a few other sectors in the next few weeks.Please respond with comments, and suggestions.
Wednesday, July 01, 2009
Monday, June 22, 2009
Random thoughts on the World T20 thingamajig
Ok, first the Indian elections, then the Indian Premier League in South Africa, and now the World T20 in England..are all over and done with.
I blogged a bit (and commented a lot) on the elections, thoroughly enjoyed the IPL because my team, Deccan Chargers, did exceedingly well (heck, we won it !), but the World T20 thingamajig did not really capture my attention till India got bounced out of the tournament.Defending champs and we did not even make the semis. Lots of reasons, but now is not the time.
The time, now is to first raise a toast (actually make it two), to the finalists - Sri Lanka and Pakistan, and extend warm congratulations to the Pakistanis for winning the cup in such a convincing fashion.
Some random notes from my dekko of the tournament:
1.T20, while it could be exciting as hell, could also bring down playing standards quite a bit, especially when they are over done.Case in point: India's over paid, over playing, over travelling cricketers.The fatigue is more mental than physical.
2.Test cricket thrives on skills, character and stamina, whereas T20 requires a lot of street smartsy attitude.Contrary to perceptions, Mr.Virender Sehwag, who does phenomenally well in test cricket, has been no great shakes in T20.
3.No matter what they say, Shahid Afridi is no longer a kid.Behind the schoolboyish exterior, a mature cricketing mind has evolved over the past decade and bit.The moment he started taking singles and hard run Twos, I could feel his 'need' to be the finisher in the final.Afridi has not exactly endeared himself to me last year after badmouthing his IPL captain (VVS Laxman) in public, but he has won his country a World Cup now, and I am so happy for him that I hereby forgive that episode of Laxman-bashing :) Dude, you rock and we would love to see you play like this for several years more !
4.Abdul Razzak is probably the one Pakistani cricketer I love the most (apart from the incomparable genius Wasim Akram and the genial giant Inzamam).I wanted Pakistan to win this final because of Razzaq.
5.However, I wanted Sri Lanka to win also.Because of one man.Probably the most articulate among all cricketers (of all nations) playing today.And the one player I hope, who, when he retires, will write a few books.If you still haven't guessed, shame on you. It is Kumar Sangakkara.Sri Lanka lost, but not before Kumar essayed some delightful prose in his elegant 64 not out.
6.Lasith Malinga, Umer Gul, Saeed Ajmal, Roelof Van der Merwe, Dwayne Bravo - all did very well through the tournament.Here's a bow to each one of them.
7.Dilshan is in the form of his life.Should have really not tried to be too cute in the final.
8.Ab DeVilliers is the rock of South African batting these days.Me thinks he should play at number 3 in all forms of Cricket for the Proteas.
9.Not much to say about England except that Nasser Hussain is a bloody hypocrite and has gone down in my estimation as a cricket commentator after this tournament.
10.Okay, Murali and Mendis.They are a cool pair, but I'd prefer watching them in test cricket.
On with the Ashes now ! But first, I am waiting to see how Piyush Chawla does for Sussex against the visiting Aussies.
I blogged a bit (and commented a lot) on the elections, thoroughly enjoyed the IPL because my team, Deccan Chargers, did exceedingly well (heck, we won it !), but the World T20 thingamajig did not really capture my attention till India got bounced out of the tournament.Defending champs and we did not even make the semis. Lots of reasons, but now is not the time.
The time, now is to first raise a toast (actually make it two), to the finalists - Sri Lanka and Pakistan, and extend warm congratulations to the Pakistanis for winning the cup in such a convincing fashion.
Some random notes from my dekko of the tournament:
1.T20, while it could be exciting as hell, could also bring down playing standards quite a bit, especially when they are over done.Case in point: India's over paid, over playing, over travelling cricketers.The fatigue is more mental than physical.
2.Test cricket thrives on skills, character and stamina, whereas T20 requires a lot of street smartsy attitude.Contrary to perceptions, Mr.Virender Sehwag, who does phenomenally well in test cricket, has been no great shakes in T20.
3.No matter what they say, Shahid Afridi is no longer a kid.Behind the schoolboyish exterior, a mature cricketing mind has evolved over the past decade and bit.The moment he started taking singles and hard run Twos, I could feel his 'need' to be the finisher in the final.Afridi has not exactly endeared himself to me last year after badmouthing his IPL captain (VVS Laxman) in public, but he has won his country a World Cup now, and I am so happy for him that I hereby forgive that episode of Laxman-bashing :) Dude, you rock and we would love to see you play like this for several years more !
4.Abdul Razzak is probably the one Pakistani cricketer I love the most (apart from the incomparable genius Wasim Akram and the genial giant Inzamam).I wanted Pakistan to win this final because of Razzaq.
5.However, I wanted Sri Lanka to win also.Because of one man.Probably the most articulate among all cricketers (of all nations) playing today.And the one player I hope, who, when he retires, will write a few books.If you still haven't guessed, shame on you. It is Kumar Sangakkara.Sri Lanka lost, but not before Kumar essayed some delightful prose in his elegant 64 not out.
6.Lasith Malinga, Umer Gul, Saeed Ajmal, Roelof Van der Merwe, Dwayne Bravo - all did very well through the tournament.Here's a bow to each one of them.
7.Dilshan is in the form of his life.Should have really not tried to be too cute in the final.
8.Ab DeVilliers is the rock of South African batting these days.Me thinks he should play at number 3 in all forms of Cricket for the Proteas.
9.Not much to say about England except that Nasser Hussain is a bloody hypocrite and has gone down in my estimation as a cricket commentator after this tournament.
10.Okay, Murali and Mendis.They are a cool pair, but I'd prefer watching them in test cricket.
On with the Ashes now ! But first, I am waiting to see how Piyush Chawla does for Sussex against the visiting Aussies.
Thursday, June 18, 2009
Is UPA-2 moving centre-right?
It has been a month since the UPA stormed back to power at the Centre.And less than three weeks since the new Cabinet has taken charge. It is too early to take stock of the situation ( I mean, Obama is still having his honeymoon !) but I see a few signs that the UPA Government is trying to do things a bit differently this time.And some of the actions show a slight movement towards centre-right, a departure from the Congress's typical centre-left approach to issues of national interest.
Before I proceed further, let me state that I still don't like the Congress Party because of (a) its role in the under development of the country, including some of the Stalinist policies on critical areas of the economy (centralised planning for example), and (b) its blatant violation of the Indian Constitution, especially areas related to individual freedom, institutional independence etc and (c) the stranglehold of one dynasty over the Party and the Indian polity for the past 60 years, and the resultant crony capitalism, criminal-politician-business nexus it has created. In the recent elections, I wanted the BJP to win because that Party looked more likely to implement centre-right (fiscal conservatism, focus on individual freedoms, cultural nationalism aka Hindutva - a recognition of the civilisational ethos of this nation in matters of governance, state craft, religious freedoms and so on). No, the BJP has never shown it self capable of being a true right wing party.But it was not the Congress.And it looked easier to influence the BJP towards a centre-right governance approach than the Congress would ever allow.
The people of India have spoken and they showed that BJP is perceived to be a 'B' team of Congress and nothing more.And when they have the original - Congress- available, why would they vote for a 'Congress Lite' party ?
The BJP is now facing internal dissension and a huge debate (most of it focused on a wrong and politically suicidal interpretation of Hindutva, aided by the illeterate MacCaulay kids in the mainstream English media) is raging.Instead of discussing its core ideology and what it should stand for, the BJP oldies are jockeying for Party positions and using journalists with dubious records as their fighter jets. It may take well over a year for the BJP to come out of this mess, if it ever will. One can only sympathise with the self-less frontline workers of the RSS, the unsung ones who live frugally and work with dedication implementing the social development programs in the remotest parts of the country.They (not the RSS seniors) don't deserve a political wing like the current BJP.
Let us leave the BJP in its mess for the time being.And focus on the signs emanating from the Congress , sorry UPA Govt in its second term, so far.
National security and Diplomacy:
1.Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has, for the first time ever, publicly demanded that Pakistan must act on its assurances of not allowing the Pakistani soil for terrorism against India.He did not say this in Mumbai or Delhi or even Washington. He said it at Yekaterinburg, in Russia, in front of global media, with a visibly embarassed Asif Zardari by his side. Good start, Professor !
2.India's diplomatic offensive at the Asian Development Bank conference paid off.US and Japan sided with India on the ADB loan and China's veto was in vain. India even threatened the ADB that if its projects in Arunachal Pradesh are not approved, it will leave the ADB. And you know what, Pakistan voted in India's favour, going against China's wishes. This not only goes to show that economic diplomacy works well, but more importantly, India has, for the first time, walked the talk. Fantastic !
3. The troop buildup in Arunachal Pradesh has been well documented.What has not been written about much is that India has now stationed four nuclear-capable Sukhoi fighter jets in the North-East border with China. And the highways are being built on priority.We can now be confident that a credible deterrence is being put in place in the NE to avoid any Chinese adventures.
Cultural Nationalism:
The visible signs are two fold.
Firstly, this year's Amarnath Yatra, if reports are to be believed, is being organized extremely well compared to the previous years.Pilgrims needs and security are being kept in mind, and the local Muslim traders are happy again because the turnout seems to be in very high numbers.The bad blood of last year's land issue is slowly being put to rest.
Second, and more important, has been the 'polite refusal' of Visas for the US Congress- sponsored Council on Religious Freedom. The USCRF wants to visit Gujarat and Orissa to ascertain whether minorities in India are being oppressed or victimised. A lot of us believe that the US Govt has no business sending a team of Evangelists to go inspect religious freedom in India.We are a proud secular nation, and we have been co-existing peacefully with each other.We really don't need certificates from a partisan US committee on this aspect. There were fears that the UPA Govt (mainly because of Sonia Gandhi's control) would allow such teams in India, and use it to political advantage. The UPA Govt has shown admirable sense (so far) in firmly, but politely asking the USCRF to mind its own business.
There are other, more important areas where we have seen UPA-2 starting off well.Kapil Sibal's plans to liberalise the education sector from the clutches of excessive Govt regulation comes to mind.The 'education vouchers scheme' has been a demand from the liberal right for a long time.The Congress did not have it in its manifesto.And yet, Kapil Sibal is talking about it seriously now.He is also talking about allowing foreign universities to set up branches in India. This is great news.If we learn only one thing from our hoary past and from the current superpower, it should be the focus and value given to higher education. If Stanford, Harvard, and Cambridge are the world's best universities, we should do all we can to have them come here, if they want to. So, again, a very positive first step.
Of course, there have been some regressive proposals such as an act to gag the Websites and blogs, and the cynical manipulation of democratic systems currently underway in West Bengal.We, the liberal right, will be watching this Govt to ensure that individual freedoms are not tampered with, at any cost.Whether it is Binayak Sen or Varun Gandhi, MF Hussain or Taslima Nasreen, the rule of law, and its protection must be available to all.
But, going by the evidence above, it does seem like UPA-2 is veering towards centre-right at this point. And that's cool !
Before I proceed further, let me state that I still don't like the Congress Party because of (a) its role in the under development of the country, including some of the Stalinist policies on critical areas of the economy (centralised planning for example), and (b) its blatant violation of the Indian Constitution, especially areas related to individual freedom, institutional independence etc and (c) the stranglehold of one dynasty over the Party and the Indian polity for the past 60 years, and the resultant crony capitalism, criminal-politician-business nexus it has created. In the recent elections, I wanted the BJP to win because that Party looked more likely to implement centre-right (fiscal conservatism, focus on individual freedoms, cultural nationalism aka Hindutva - a recognition of the civilisational ethos of this nation in matters of governance, state craft, religious freedoms and so on). No, the BJP has never shown it self capable of being a true right wing party.But it was not the Congress.And it looked easier to influence the BJP towards a centre-right governance approach than the Congress would ever allow.
The people of India have spoken and they showed that BJP is perceived to be a 'B' team of Congress and nothing more.And when they have the original - Congress- available, why would they vote for a 'Congress Lite' party ?
The BJP is now facing internal dissension and a huge debate (most of it focused on a wrong and politically suicidal interpretation of Hindutva, aided by the illeterate MacCaulay kids in the mainstream English media) is raging.Instead of discussing its core ideology and what it should stand for, the BJP oldies are jockeying for Party positions and using journalists with dubious records as their fighter jets. It may take well over a year for the BJP to come out of this mess, if it ever will. One can only sympathise with the self-less frontline workers of the RSS, the unsung ones who live frugally and work with dedication implementing the social development programs in the remotest parts of the country.They (not the RSS seniors) don't deserve a political wing like the current BJP.
Let us leave the BJP in its mess for the time being.And focus on the signs emanating from the Congress , sorry UPA Govt in its second term, so far.
National security and Diplomacy:
1.Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has, for the first time ever, publicly demanded that Pakistan must act on its assurances of not allowing the Pakistani soil for terrorism against India.He did not say this in Mumbai or Delhi or even Washington. He said it at Yekaterinburg, in Russia, in front of global media, with a visibly embarassed Asif Zardari by his side. Good start, Professor !
2.India's diplomatic offensive at the Asian Development Bank conference paid off.US and Japan sided with India on the ADB loan and China's veto was in vain. India even threatened the ADB that if its projects in Arunachal Pradesh are not approved, it will leave the ADB. And you know what, Pakistan voted in India's favour, going against China's wishes. This not only goes to show that economic diplomacy works well, but more importantly, India has, for the first time, walked the talk. Fantastic !
3. The troop buildup in Arunachal Pradesh has been well documented.What has not been written about much is that India has now stationed four nuclear-capable Sukhoi fighter jets in the North-East border with China. And the highways are being built on priority.We can now be confident that a credible deterrence is being put in place in the NE to avoid any Chinese adventures.
Cultural Nationalism:
The visible signs are two fold.
Firstly, this year's Amarnath Yatra, if reports are to be believed, is being organized extremely well compared to the previous years.Pilgrims needs and security are being kept in mind, and the local Muslim traders are happy again because the turnout seems to be in very high numbers.The bad blood of last year's land issue is slowly being put to rest.
Second, and more important, has been the 'polite refusal' of Visas for the US Congress- sponsored Council on Religious Freedom. The USCRF wants to visit Gujarat and Orissa to ascertain whether minorities in India are being oppressed or victimised. A lot of us believe that the US Govt has no business sending a team of Evangelists to go inspect religious freedom in India.We are a proud secular nation, and we have been co-existing peacefully with each other.We really don't need certificates from a partisan US committee on this aspect. There were fears that the UPA Govt (mainly because of Sonia Gandhi's control) would allow such teams in India, and use it to political advantage. The UPA Govt has shown admirable sense (so far) in firmly, but politely asking the USCRF to mind its own business.
There are other, more important areas where we have seen UPA-2 starting off well.Kapil Sibal's plans to liberalise the education sector from the clutches of excessive Govt regulation comes to mind.The 'education vouchers scheme' has been a demand from the liberal right for a long time.The Congress did not have it in its manifesto.And yet, Kapil Sibal is talking about it seriously now.He is also talking about allowing foreign universities to set up branches in India. This is great news.If we learn only one thing from our hoary past and from the current superpower, it should be the focus and value given to higher education. If Stanford, Harvard, and Cambridge are the world's best universities, we should do all we can to have them come here, if they want to. So, again, a very positive first step.
Of course, there have been some regressive proposals such as an act to gag the Websites and blogs, and the cynical manipulation of democratic systems currently underway in West Bengal.We, the liberal right, will be watching this Govt to ensure that individual freedoms are not tampered with, at any cost.Whether it is Binayak Sen or Varun Gandhi, MF Hussain or Taslima Nasreen, the rule of law, and its protection must be available to all.
But, going by the evidence above, it does seem like UPA-2 is veering towards centre-right at this point. And that's cool !
Saturday, May 23, 2009
The White Umbrella and other random thoughts
I have reduced my blog-hopping these days, as I seem to spend more time reading a few regular blogs, apart from the interesting discussions I have been having at Facebook.
- Blogger Yossarin at Offstumped has created a separate Wordpress blog to discuss Shveta Chhatra, aka the big white tent. Go there, read about it, and add your bits.
-Meanwhile, at the IPL, we have Deccan Chargers Hyderabad and Royal Challengers Bangalore meeting in the finals.These two teams finished at the bottom of the table in IPL 1.Goes to show that 20:20 as a format has stuck to the tradition of 'glorious uncertainty' of Cricket as a whole. As I have lived in Hyderabad (currently living) and also Bangalore (IMP: the Missus is from there), we have had the Hyd Vs Blr, which city is better kinda debates lots of times. I don't really mind who wins today because both the teams have over achieved already compared to last season. But it will be interesting to see Gilly Vs Kumble as captains - both these players give and demand 200% from their boys.And the hatchet of Sydney 2008 is there, not yet buried fully, I suppose.
-Moving on to more weightier matters, I STRONGLY RECOMMEND this post on Atanu Dey's blog. It is a long post, and it will be worthwhile to print it,and read, re-read it, and then giving the printout to some/any youngster to read and internalize.
- I happened to discuss the question - 'secret of success' with a close friend yesterday.And my take was that:One should always listen to the heart to take a decision on which options to choose in life; once the heart takes the decision, use the mind to implement the actions. Most of the time, we tend to logically analyze the pros and cons of every possible option and then go with the one that looks least risky.Unless one hits a jackpot or plain lucky enough to have a parent/friend/sibling who hit a jackpot, taking the less risky option is bound to ensure that you end up as an under achiever.If you don't want that to happen, you need to, I repeat, 'listen to your heart'. And to put my words into practice, I have decided to only follow the heart from now on when it comes to all the really important decisions in life.Let me see how this pans out :)
- There is a lot that need to be written about the recent election results.A lot has already been written by many people. But I think I am tired by now, and I need to get a move on. So, here's the most simple analysis you are likely to find on the Internet about the Indian general elections 2009:
Indians wanted status-quo for the next 5 years.The people are really wary about any big changes, and are content to drift along somehow and survive, than risking a change.Is this good or bad? Neither.Because India as a Nation wants to wait and watch.
- Blogger Yossarin at Offstumped has created a separate Wordpress blog to discuss Shveta Chhatra, aka the big white tent. Go there, read about it, and add your bits.
-Meanwhile, at the IPL, we have Deccan Chargers Hyderabad and Royal Challengers Bangalore meeting in the finals.These two teams finished at the bottom of the table in IPL 1.Goes to show that 20:20 as a format has stuck to the tradition of 'glorious uncertainty' of Cricket as a whole. As I have lived in Hyderabad (currently living) and also Bangalore (IMP: the Missus is from there), we have had the Hyd Vs Blr, which city is better kinda debates lots of times. I don't really mind who wins today because both the teams have over achieved already compared to last season. But it will be interesting to see Gilly Vs Kumble as captains - both these players give and demand 200% from their boys.And the hatchet of Sydney 2008 is there, not yet buried fully, I suppose.
-Moving on to more weightier matters, I STRONGLY RECOMMEND this post on Atanu Dey's blog. It is a long post, and it will be worthwhile to print it,and read, re-read it, and then giving the printout to some/any youngster to read and internalize.
- I happened to discuss the question - 'secret of success' with a close friend yesterday.And my take was that:One should always listen to the heart to take a decision on which options to choose in life; once the heart takes the decision, use the mind to implement the actions. Most of the time, we tend to logically analyze the pros and cons of every possible option and then go with the one that looks least risky.Unless one hits a jackpot or plain lucky enough to have a parent/friend/sibling who hit a jackpot, taking the less risky option is bound to ensure that you end up as an under achiever.If you don't want that to happen, you need to, I repeat, 'listen to your heart'. And to put my words into practice, I have decided to only follow the heart from now on when it comes to all the really important decisions in life.Let me see how this pans out :)
- There is a lot that need to be written about the recent election results.A lot has already been written by many people. But I think I am tired by now, and I need to get a move on. So, here's the most simple analysis you are likely to find on the Internet about the Indian general elections 2009:
Indians wanted status-quo for the next 5 years.The people are really wary about any big changes, and are content to drift along somehow and survive, than risking a change.Is this good or bad? Neither.Because India as a Nation wants to wait and watch.
Monday, May 18, 2009
General Elections 2009 - Analysis of AP Results
Caution: Long post :)
The newspapers, the blogworld, and the electronic media are full of election results analysis this week. With the amazing victory of Indian National Congress (INC) led UPA in the Lok Sabha elections, and the INC's successful defense of its citadel in Andhra Pradesh (AP), hopes have been raised because of assured stability at both centre and state for the next five years.
Even though I am not a supporter of Congress politics, I find it hard not to feel happy about the results because: 1.The Left has been routed in its strongholds and 2.Indian electorate has decisively voted for a National party(though for the wrong one !) ; except for Bihar and Orissa, INC has fared well wherever it was pitted against the regional parties. This bodes well for our polity. I will have another post where I am going to look at the short, medium and long term possibilities for inclusive growth and economic policy under the new dispensation.
For now, I would like to indulge in some analysis of my own on the election results. In this post, I will focus on my home state of Andhra Pradesh.
Background (Longish one; skip it if you already know all this):
INC led by Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy (YSR) came to power in 2004 elections after a 10-year rule by Telugu Desam Party (TDP) led by Chandra Babu Naidu (CBN). Whilst the founder of TDP, the Telugu film star N.T. Rama Rao, created political consciousness among the people of AP (NTR made people realize the power of their vote, by giving them the option to dethrone the Congress), CBN created 'development consciousness' among the Telugus.Naidu was known as the CEO of AP Inc, due to his penchant for powerpoint presentations, hobnobbing with Bill Gates to bring Microsoft Global Dev Centre to Hyderabad, and in general putting Hyderabad on the global IT map. Naidu also spent a lot of money beautifying the city and working on the infrastructure in the State. Naidu also made citizens realize that they can question officials and politicians on their performance directly. But his developmental policies were seen as pro-rich, and five suucessive years of bad monsoon did not help agriculture at all.
YSR made his money from Barytes (Barium Sulphide, used in petroleum processing mainly) mines in Kadapa district (Kadapa is my home town too).For almost 22 years, he was an eternal dissident within the State Congress Party, and was also a faction leader of some notoriety.YSR is a charismatic leader, and learnt his political craft in the rough and tumble of AP Congress politics.I remember the Hindu-Muslim communal riots in AP during the early 1990s when Cong was in power in the State. Though it has not been proven, many people allege that YSR organized those riots to create a law and order situation thereby making the Congress high command dismiss the State Chief Minister. But the Congress' Delhi elite saw YSR as a rabble rouser, and kinda country hick type, and never gave him the CM chair.
By 1999, YSR became the main Congress leader in AP, with the older, more urbane leaders retiring from active politics.YSR tried his best, but Naidu, in alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won a huge majority in State assembly and also delivered 32/42 seats for the BJP-led government at the Centre.
Things changed for YSR around 2002-03.He ran into some troubles with his children earlier, but finally saw everything settle down, and he became the numero uno Congress leader.He knew the 2004 elections were his last chance to have a go at power.And he undertook a pada yatra - a walking tour of the entire state of AP, in severe summer.He visited hundreds of villages, spoke with the farmers, and created a massive negative swing against the TDP government.Naidu was so successful in demoralising his opponents that all of them (the Communists, Congress, and the Telangana Rashtra Samiti) joined hands to defeat the ruling party. The media, both state and national, never saw the wave against TDP.YSR promised freebies such as free electricity, and the reinstatement of Rs. 2 a kilo rice scheme.And a decade of anti-incumbency against Naidu culminated in YSR winning a huge popular mandate for his party.And more Lok Sabha seats for his party than from any other state.He had arrived on the national scene.
In the past five years of YSR's rule, there has been a lot of noise, but not much development in the state.The Union Govt's rural unemployment welfare scheme was implemented shoddily, and the housing scheme for rural poor got mired in inefficiencies, and large scale corruption.YSR's son Jagan started a media empire, a steel factory, expanded the mining businesses, and grew his personal wealth to become a billionaire (though his declared assets make him only a millionaire).Congressmen throughout the state revelled in the ease of use of corruption opportunities, and made millions in real estate deals (mainly robbing the rural poor), civil contracts and so on.From a culture of development consciousness, AP became a place where acceptance of corruption and communal politics became THE CULTURE.No major new roads were built, existing roads were not maintained, and the promise to give a separate state of Telangana was not kept.
A few months before the 2009 elections, film star Chiranjeevi launched his Praja Rajyam party (PRP).Chiru, as he is popularly known, belongs to the Kapu caste, while CBN is a Kamma and YSR is a Reddy-Christian (meaning he could be whatever he wants to depending on who he is addressing). Though Chiru never made casteist statements, the coterie around him and his opponents made sure that PRP is seen as a Kapu party.
All along, Naidu was against the idea of separate Telangana.But now he changed tactics and openly supported the cause of Telangana.Naidu also rallied the Communists to his side, thus creating a Maha Kootami (Grand Alliance) between TDP, TRS, and the Left parties.
Naidu's calculation: Alliance will trounce Congress in Telangana.In Rayalaseema, TDP will share the seats with Congress.In Coastal Andhra and North Andhra, Kapus will vote for PRP thus damaging the Congress, and TDP will gain as a result.
TRS calculation: Led by the maverick Chandrasekhar Rao (KCR), the TRS plan was to ally with whoever they can, with the sole intention of creating a separate state.KCR has a way with words and he is adept at making inflammatory speeches.He is also a political opportunist and has a dictatorial approach towards party governance.He was a senior cabinet minister under CBN earlier.But after 7 years of breaking promises, his reliability factor was a bit low. And yet, TRS and TDP counted on the Telangana sentiment to get to power.
Left Parties: In AP, the Left is led by two individuals who hardly agree with each other - Raghavulu of CPM and Narayana of CPI.Their calculation is simple - latch on to whoever looks like a winner, and gain from the reflected glory after the election.They have one asset though - being cadre-based parties, the Left were trained in transferring their vote to the allies.
Lok Satta and BJP: Now, why am I clubbing these two small, insignificant parties in AP?Well, we will get to that point later.
Congress calculation aka YSR's calculation: True to their nature, Congressmen love to fight among themselves.So, one section of the Party want a separate state for Telangana whilst the rest want AP to stay as it is.Chief Minister YSR never opposed Telangana, but never allowed any initiative to start the due process.
(NOTE: Both Naidu and YSR are from Rayalaseema, which is smaller in area and seats compared to Telangana and Coastal AP.So, they know that if Telangana is given, Coastal AP leaders will not allow a Rayalaseema leader to become the CM.Also, who would want to lose some area from under his rule?)
YSR sounded confident throughout the election campaign that he will return to power, and will also get maximum number of MPs for Congress from AP.He kept repeating this statement and the numbers, inspite of his own party members disagreeing with him, the opinion polls showing an advantage for the alliance, and PRP's presence complicating the matters further.
The general feeling was that Congress won't be able to form a Govt, and there will be a hung assembly with no party getting simple majority.Chiru would become the king maker as he is sure to get atleast 30-40 seats, people said.Chiru himself said his party would get simple majority and he will be the next CM.
Results: We all know what happened.For the record, Congress led by YSR got 157 seats out of 294, comfortably crossing the half-way mark of 147 for a simple majority.Surprise, surprise, YSR won 33/42 parliament seats for his party as well ! TDP won 90 assembly and 6 Lok Sabha seats.The much hyped Praja Rajyam got only 18 assembly seats and did not win even a single LS seat.
What really happened in AP ?
1. The voters of Telangana have decisively rejected the separate state sentiment and voted for integration.TRS candidates lost security deposits in 9 seats, and won only 10 out of the 35 they contested.Congress won around 52 seats in Telangana, while the Congress ministers and sitting MLAs from Telangana (most of them agitated for a separate state) lost.TDP (no one believed Naidu's words of support for Telangana) did extremely well, and won 32 out of 55 they contested, a strike rate of almost 73%, better than even the Congress.
2.PRP with its 17 % share of the votes polled in the State, largely helped the Congress, especially in North Andhra, Godavari districts, and Nelore, Anantapur and Kadapa districts.
3.Inspite of PRP's impact, TDP did very well in Rayalaseema and won 21 seats against the Congress tally of 26.
4. Massive consolidation of Dalit Christian vote in favour of Congress. YSR's advantage is that Reddys see him as a Reddy, and Christians see him as a pious Christian.YSR's son-in-law, the Brahmin-turned aggressive evangelist Bro.Anil Kumar did a hectic campaign in the state, but focused on coastal areas where, due to the success of Joshua Project, the % of Christians has seen a sea-change in the last two decades.Unofficial estimates put the % of Christians in Coastal AP at almost 20%, but even if it is 12%, it is a huge bank, when allied with the Congress traditional vote base.
5.The perception of Muslim voters that any vote for TDP in LS elections would mean a vote for BJP at the national level ensured heavy cross voting in favor of Congress in LS elections.Interestingly, the Muslim voters did not vote on religious considerations in the Assembly elections. Cong had 12 Muslim MLA candidates but only 4 of them won this time.
6.Congress tried all the tricks it had and then some more.For example, the riots between Dalit Christians and Kapus in Godavari area 2 days before the elections saw a major polarisation helping the Congress candidates win the LS and assembly seats against all odds.
7.YSR ensured that the right emotional messages were sent to the Hindu upper castes in AP by focusing on TTD (the trust that manages the famous Balaji temple in Tirupati)'s religious activities.Many Brahmins I spoke to (Disclaimer: I am a Brahmin myself) were happy with initiatives like Dalita Govindam, mass vedic marriage ceremonies for poor people, the Annamayya project, launching of a Hindu devotional channel by TTD and so on.And where there are signficant upper caste voters such as Vijayawada, Congress put up a Brahmin candidate.Of course he won.
8.TDP lost this elections because it overestimated the strenth of TRS and the Left.If it had contested for all 294 seats on its own, we would have seen a different story.Instead, it contested only 225 seats, and won 90.Congress contested 294 and won 157.Naidu had also messed up candidate selection and there were over 60 rebel candidates.Out of these, 34 candidates came close second against their Congress opponents and the official TDP candidates came third.If TDP had got this aspect right, we would have seen them getting 124 and Congress would also have got around 130.And with TRS/PRP help, Naidu would have formed the Govt :)
9.BJP lost a lot of its core vote base of 8% and ended up with 2% votes.Lok Satta also got around the same or slightly less % of votes.This means, a good chunk of BJP's core vote base of liberal right and Hindutva supporters, especially the urban middle class, shifted towards Lok Satta, as they were impressed by JP Narayan, the Lok Satta founder. Lok Satta's manifesto and approach appeal to the same voter base that usually votes the BJP.Also, as said earlier, the competitive minority appeasement talk of Chiru and Naidu put off the Hindutva voters and they voted Congress for its apparent balance of appeasement under YSR.
10.Okay, we can't discount the money power and caste combinations.However, it looks to me that in Telangana and Rayalaseema, people voted for individual candidates and party policies, and not on caste lines.In coastal AP, it was money power and caste all the way.YSR wisely desisted from spending too much in Seema and Telangana and focused on coastal AP.
(NOTE: YSR got lucky with the defeat of 14 of his ministers, including the state Congress president D.Srinivas.This leaves him with no visible challenger in his Party for the next five years.)
What next for the parties?
Congress under YSR: Enjoy the second term, make more money, supress the opposition.I hope they also finally start getting some things done for the poor people instead of creating a culture of entitlement for specific sections.Congress would do well to attract the urban middle class youth, and also strive for efficient delivery mechanisms for its flagship welfare schemes.
TDP under Naidu: Contrary to what people say, I feel that TDP can be proud of its performance and its ability to motivate the cadre and also retain its core vote base.They need to learn their lessons, and focus on the local body elections.Naidu can and would play a responsible opposition, but he needs to understand that stalling assembly proceedings will not endear him or his party to the electorate watching Live Assembly on TV !
PRP: Chiru was such a big disappointment really that it needs a separate post altogether.Many people are saying that PRP will dissolve after a while and the MLAs would join Congress.That may or may not happen, but I have some ideas for what Chiru needs to do, which I will put down later.For now, I hope he attends assembly regularly and learns the ropes of being a peoples' representative.
BJP: Start from scratch.As I consider myself a centre-right person (a liberal Republican voter in the American sense), I have a stake in how the BJP does in my home state.They have a huge potential but facing a leadership problem.I hope they find a leader from the interior parts of the State instead of Hyderabad city.Operation Lotus, the way it was done in neighbouring Karnataka may not work in AP.But there are other approaches.I am discussing some of these steps with like minded folks on the Net and on the ground.Lets see what happens.
Lok Satta: I wish I could join this party as its policies are a mix of the best practices across the world, modified to fit India/AP. I see Lok Satta growing steadily in AP for the next decade or so till it becomes a decisive player in the state.
Left parties: If they want to remain relevant, they should do some honest introspection.Don't want to say more than this because I consider the Left in India as among the scum of the earth and stooges of China.They don't deserve my brain cells or key strokes.Period.
Media: Has largely played a decent role in AP, unlike their national level English counterparts.
To end this post, I want to salute the sagacity of AP voters.They did not vote Congress into power.It happened due to various factors some of which I listed above.By and large, irrespective of the party affiliation, the better candidates among the ones contesting have won.The voters exercised their choice equally in favor of TDP and Congress, and mostly discarded the rest.It is the nature of our 'first past the post' system that gave a decisive mandate to the Congress with such low margins in terms of votes polled.Also, for the LS elections, the voters went for the only national party that has a presence in AP. What else can a nationalist like me ask for?
Oh yea..I can always hope that AP voters will have a genuine choice between the two national parties in 2014.Till then, watch the Govt and make sure they know we are watching !
(Next post will be on analysis of national level results including links to articles from various analysts. Watch this space !)
The newspapers, the blogworld, and the electronic media are full of election results analysis this week. With the amazing victory of Indian National Congress (INC) led UPA in the Lok Sabha elections, and the INC's successful defense of its citadel in Andhra Pradesh (AP), hopes have been raised because of assured stability at both centre and state for the next five years.
Even though I am not a supporter of Congress politics, I find it hard not to feel happy about the results because: 1.The Left has been routed in its strongholds and 2.Indian electorate has decisively voted for a National party(though for the wrong one !) ; except for Bihar and Orissa, INC has fared well wherever it was pitted against the regional parties. This bodes well for our polity. I will have another post where I am going to look at the short, medium and long term possibilities for inclusive growth and economic policy under the new dispensation.
For now, I would like to indulge in some analysis of my own on the election results. In this post, I will focus on my home state of Andhra Pradesh.
Background (Longish one; skip it if you already know all this):
INC led by Y.S. Rajasekhar Reddy (YSR) came to power in 2004 elections after a 10-year rule by Telugu Desam Party (TDP) led by Chandra Babu Naidu (CBN). Whilst the founder of TDP, the Telugu film star N.T. Rama Rao, created political consciousness among the people of AP (NTR made people realize the power of their vote, by giving them the option to dethrone the Congress), CBN created 'development consciousness' among the Telugus.Naidu was known as the CEO of AP Inc, due to his penchant for powerpoint presentations, hobnobbing with Bill Gates to bring Microsoft Global Dev Centre to Hyderabad, and in general putting Hyderabad on the global IT map. Naidu also spent a lot of money beautifying the city and working on the infrastructure in the State. Naidu also made citizens realize that they can question officials and politicians on their performance directly. But his developmental policies were seen as pro-rich, and five suucessive years of bad monsoon did not help agriculture at all.
YSR made his money from Barytes (Barium Sulphide, used in petroleum processing mainly) mines in Kadapa district (Kadapa is my home town too).For almost 22 years, he was an eternal dissident within the State Congress Party, and was also a faction leader of some notoriety.YSR is a charismatic leader, and learnt his political craft in the rough and tumble of AP Congress politics.I remember the Hindu-Muslim communal riots in AP during the early 1990s when Cong was in power in the State. Though it has not been proven, many people allege that YSR organized those riots to create a law and order situation thereby making the Congress high command dismiss the State Chief Minister. But the Congress' Delhi elite saw YSR as a rabble rouser, and kinda country hick type, and never gave him the CM chair.
By 1999, YSR became the main Congress leader in AP, with the older, more urbane leaders retiring from active politics.YSR tried his best, but Naidu, in alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won a huge majority in State assembly and also delivered 32/42 seats for the BJP-led government at the Centre.
Things changed for YSR around 2002-03.He ran into some troubles with his children earlier, but finally saw everything settle down, and he became the numero uno Congress leader.He knew the 2004 elections were his last chance to have a go at power.And he undertook a pada yatra - a walking tour of the entire state of AP, in severe summer.He visited hundreds of villages, spoke with the farmers, and created a massive negative swing against the TDP government.Naidu was so successful in demoralising his opponents that all of them (the Communists, Congress, and the Telangana Rashtra Samiti) joined hands to defeat the ruling party. The media, both state and national, never saw the wave against TDP.YSR promised freebies such as free electricity, and the reinstatement of Rs. 2 a kilo rice scheme.And a decade of anti-incumbency against Naidu culminated in YSR winning a huge popular mandate for his party.And more Lok Sabha seats for his party than from any other state.He had arrived on the national scene.
In the past five years of YSR's rule, there has been a lot of noise, but not much development in the state.The Union Govt's rural unemployment welfare scheme was implemented shoddily, and the housing scheme for rural poor got mired in inefficiencies, and large scale corruption.YSR's son Jagan started a media empire, a steel factory, expanded the mining businesses, and grew his personal wealth to become a billionaire (though his declared assets make him only a millionaire).Congressmen throughout the state revelled in the ease of use of corruption opportunities, and made millions in real estate deals (mainly robbing the rural poor), civil contracts and so on.From a culture of development consciousness, AP became a place where acceptance of corruption and communal politics became THE CULTURE.No major new roads were built, existing roads were not maintained, and the promise to give a separate state of Telangana was not kept.
A few months before the 2009 elections, film star Chiranjeevi launched his Praja Rajyam party (PRP).Chiru, as he is popularly known, belongs to the Kapu caste, while CBN is a Kamma and YSR is a Reddy-Christian (meaning he could be whatever he wants to depending on who he is addressing). Though Chiru never made casteist statements, the coterie around him and his opponents made sure that PRP is seen as a Kapu party.
All along, Naidu was against the idea of separate Telangana.But now he changed tactics and openly supported the cause of Telangana.Naidu also rallied the Communists to his side, thus creating a Maha Kootami (Grand Alliance) between TDP, TRS, and the Left parties.
Naidu's calculation: Alliance will trounce Congress in Telangana.In Rayalaseema, TDP will share the seats with Congress.In Coastal Andhra and North Andhra, Kapus will vote for PRP thus damaging the Congress, and TDP will gain as a result.
TRS calculation: Led by the maverick Chandrasekhar Rao (KCR), the TRS plan was to ally with whoever they can, with the sole intention of creating a separate state.KCR has a way with words and he is adept at making inflammatory speeches.He is also a political opportunist and has a dictatorial approach towards party governance.He was a senior cabinet minister under CBN earlier.But after 7 years of breaking promises, his reliability factor was a bit low. And yet, TRS and TDP counted on the Telangana sentiment to get to power.
Left Parties: In AP, the Left is led by two individuals who hardly agree with each other - Raghavulu of CPM and Narayana of CPI.Their calculation is simple - latch on to whoever looks like a winner, and gain from the reflected glory after the election.They have one asset though - being cadre-based parties, the Left were trained in transferring their vote to the allies.
Lok Satta and BJP: Now, why am I clubbing these two small, insignificant parties in AP?Well, we will get to that point later.
Congress calculation aka YSR's calculation: True to their nature, Congressmen love to fight among themselves.So, one section of the Party want a separate state for Telangana whilst the rest want AP to stay as it is.Chief Minister YSR never opposed Telangana, but never allowed any initiative to start the due process.
(NOTE: Both Naidu and YSR are from Rayalaseema, which is smaller in area and seats compared to Telangana and Coastal AP.So, they know that if Telangana is given, Coastal AP leaders will not allow a Rayalaseema leader to become the CM.Also, who would want to lose some area from under his rule?)
YSR sounded confident throughout the election campaign that he will return to power, and will also get maximum number of MPs for Congress from AP.He kept repeating this statement and the numbers, inspite of his own party members disagreeing with him, the opinion polls showing an advantage for the alliance, and PRP's presence complicating the matters further.
The general feeling was that Congress won't be able to form a Govt, and there will be a hung assembly with no party getting simple majority.Chiru would become the king maker as he is sure to get atleast 30-40 seats, people said.Chiru himself said his party would get simple majority and he will be the next CM.
Results: We all know what happened.For the record, Congress led by YSR got 157 seats out of 294, comfortably crossing the half-way mark of 147 for a simple majority.Surprise, surprise, YSR won 33/42 parliament seats for his party as well ! TDP won 90 assembly and 6 Lok Sabha seats.The much hyped Praja Rajyam got only 18 assembly seats and did not win even a single LS seat.
What really happened in AP ?
1. The voters of Telangana have decisively rejected the separate state sentiment and voted for integration.TRS candidates lost security deposits in 9 seats, and won only 10 out of the 35 they contested.Congress won around 52 seats in Telangana, while the Congress ministers and sitting MLAs from Telangana (most of them agitated for a separate state) lost.TDP (no one believed Naidu's words of support for Telangana) did extremely well, and won 32 out of 55 they contested, a strike rate of almost 73%, better than even the Congress.
2.PRP with its 17 % share of the votes polled in the State, largely helped the Congress, especially in North Andhra, Godavari districts, and Nelore, Anantapur and Kadapa districts.
3.Inspite of PRP's impact, TDP did very well in Rayalaseema and won 21 seats against the Congress tally of 26.
4. Massive consolidation of Dalit Christian vote in favour of Congress. YSR's advantage is that Reddys see him as a Reddy, and Christians see him as a pious Christian.YSR's son-in-law, the Brahmin-turned aggressive evangelist Bro.Anil Kumar did a hectic campaign in the state, but focused on coastal areas where, due to the success of Joshua Project, the % of Christians has seen a sea-change in the last two decades.Unofficial estimates put the % of Christians in Coastal AP at almost 20%, but even if it is 12%, it is a huge bank, when allied with the Congress traditional vote base.
5.The perception of Muslim voters that any vote for TDP in LS elections would mean a vote for BJP at the national level ensured heavy cross voting in favor of Congress in LS elections.Interestingly, the Muslim voters did not vote on religious considerations in the Assembly elections. Cong had 12 Muslim MLA candidates but only 4 of them won this time.
6.Congress tried all the tricks it had and then some more.For example, the riots between Dalit Christians and Kapus in Godavari area 2 days before the elections saw a major polarisation helping the Congress candidates win the LS and assembly seats against all odds.
7.YSR ensured that the right emotional messages were sent to the Hindu upper castes in AP by focusing on TTD (the trust that manages the famous Balaji temple in Tirupati)'s religious activities.Many Brahmins I spoke to (Disclaimer: I am a Brahmin myself) were happy with initiatives like Dalita Govindam, mass vedic marriage ceremonies for poor people, the Annamayya project, launching of a Hindu devotional channel by TTD and so on.And where there are signficant upper caste voters such as Vijayawada, Congress put up a Brahmin candidate.Of course he won.
8.TDP lost this elections because it overestimated the strenth of TRS and the Left.If it had contested for all 294 seats on its own, we would have seen a different story.Instead, it contested only 225 seats, and won 90.Congress contested 294 and won 157.Naidu had also messed up candidate selection and there were over 60 rebel candidates.Out of these, 34 candidates came close second against their Congress opponents and the official TDP candidates came third.If TDP had got this aspect right, we would have seen them getting 124 and Congress would also have got around 130.And with TRS/PRP help, Naidu would have formed the Govt :)
9.BJP lost a lot of its core vote base of 8% and ended up with 2% votes.Lok Satta also got around the same or slightly less % of votes.This means, a good chunk of BJP's core vote base of liberal right and Hindutva supporters, especially the urban middle class, shifted towards Lok Satta, as they were impressed by JP Narayan, the Lok Satta founder. Lok Satta's manifesto and approach appeal to the same voter base that usually votes the BJP.Also, as said earlier, the competitive minority appeasement talk of Chiru and Naidu put off the Hindutva voters and they voted Congress for its apparent balance of appeasement under YSR.
10.Okay, we can't discount the money power and caste combinations.However, it looks to me that in Telangana and Rayalaseema, people voted for individual candidates and party policies, and not on caste lines.In coastal AP, it was money power and caste all the way.YSR wisely desisted from spending too much in Seema and Telangana and focused on coastal AP.
(NOTE: YSR got lucky with the defeat of 14 of his ministers, including the state Congress president D.Srinivas.This leaves him with no visible challenger in his Party for the next five years.)
What next for the parties?
Congress under YSR: Enjoy the second term, make more money, supress the opposition.I hope they also finally start getting some things done for the poor people instead of creating a culture of entitlement for specific sections.Congress would do well to attract the urban middle class youth, and also strive for efficient delivery mechanisms for its flagship welfare schemes.
TDP under Naidu: Contrary to what people say, I feel that TDP can be proud of its performance and its ability to motivate the cadre and also retain its core vote base.They need to learn their lessons, and focus on the local body elections.Naidu can and would play a responsible opposition, but he needs to understand that stalling assembly proceedings will not endear him or his party to the electorate watching Live Assembly on TV !
PRP: Chiru was such a big disappointment really that it needs a separate post altogether.Many people are saying that PRP will dissolve after a while and the MLAs would join Congress.That may or may not happen, but I have some ideas for what Chiru needs to do, which I will put down later.For now, I hope he attends assembly regularly and learns the ropes of being a peoples' representative.
BJP: Start from scratch.As I consider myself a centre-right person (a liberal Republican voter in the American sense), I have a stake in how the BJP does in my home state.They have a huge potential but facing a leadership problem.I hope they find a leader from the interior parts of the State instead of Hyderabad city.Operation Lotus, the way it was done in neighbouring Karnataka may not work in AP.But there are other approaches.I am discussing some of these steps with like minded folks on the Net and on the ground.Lets see what happens.
Lok Satta: I wish I could join this party as its policies are a mix of the best practices across the world, modified to fit India/AP. I see Lok Satta growing steadily in AP for the next decade or so till it becomes a decisive player in the state.
Left parties: If they want to remain relevant, they should do some honest introspection.Don't want to say more than this because I consider the Left in India as among the scum of the earth and stooges of China.They don't deserve my brain cells or key strokes.Period.
Media: Has largely played a decent role in AP, unlike their national level English counterparts.
To end this post, I want to salute the sagacity of AP voters.They did not vote Congress into power.It happened due to various factors some of which I listed above.By and large, irrespective of the party affiliation, the better candidates among the ones contesting have won.The voters exercised their choice equally in favor of TDP and Congress, and mostly discarded the rest.It is the nature of our 'first past the post' system that gave a decisive mandate to the Congress with such low margins in terms of votes polled.Also, for the LS elections, the voters went for the only national party that has a presence in AP. What else can a nationalist like me ask for?
Oh yea..I can always hope that AP voters will have a genuine choice between the two national parties in 2014.Till then, watch the Govt and make sure they know we are watching !
(Next post will be on analysis of national level results including links to articles from various analysts. Watch this space !)
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Indian History- Akbar
http://bharatendu.com/2009/03/12/a-ghazi-turned-kafir-the-case-of-akbars-u-turn-1/
History books at school and under graduate level generally give us black or white descriptions of historical figures, especially the Mughal period.We are told that Akbar stood for religious tolerance, and Aurangzeb is known for being a pious Muslim and for atrocities against Hindus.Jehangir and Shahjehan are portrayed as art lovers.The Internet has made historical research and collaboration possible between not just University professors and Govt-funded research scholars, but also interested amateurs from various fields.I wish I had the time to do my own research, but other pursuits beckon :)However, I keep trawling the web for new resources and perspectives on World and Indian history.Bharatendu is one such site.Sarvesh Tiwari thinks in 'shuddh' Hindi and translates his thoughts into English, making his style quaint in a readable way.In this multi-part post on Akbar, Sarvesh looks at sources from all sides of the argument, and presents his thesis - that Akbar started as a Ghazi (an Islamic title denoting a warrior of the faith) but became a kaffir (non-believer) by the time of his death.
Observations: 1.Sarvesh is definitely a 'cultural nationalist' and not a 'left nationalist' historian.But he takes care to address not just the readers who are 'Hindutva' types, but also the general, ideology neutral history buff.2.Typical commentors on sites like Bharatendu belong to right wing ideology.But that doesn't mean they agree with each other all the time :) Some of them are virulent in their prejudices, but a large number are just happy arm-chair analysts (like yours truly!) who are scouring the Web for reading material and love to debate with others.You can ignore the comments if you are a staunch 'left of centre' person (I know some of my friends are of such persuasion !), but some times the comments have links to excellent sources of info.3.Is a fresh perspective on historical figures really relevant for India? Yes, I think it is relevant.We need to understand the evolution of the sub-continent's civilisational memory, ethos, and thereby understand ourselves better.Today, India and its neighborhood have become the hubs of globalisation - of flat world economic forces, of divisive and terrorist ideologies, and above all home to hundreds of millions of the very poor.If we are to solve the problems of poverty, inequality and divisiveness, and create a peaceful and just society, an open source truth and reconciliation exercise could form one of the components. I see the work of people like Sarvesh from this angle.But yes, one needs to be a history buff to enjoy these topics.Happy reading (long posts !) and please let me know your thoughts.
http://bharatendu.com/2009/03/12/a-ghazi-turned-kafir-the-case-of-akbars-u-turn-1/
Monday, February 02, 2009
Say No to Navin Chawla!
This image is courtesy Sandeep. Here's what Sandeep has to say about Mr.Chawla.
And over at Indian National Interest, Offstumped has dissected N.Ram's brazen support to Chawla.
More later...
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